Tuesday, November 23, 2010

It's Time To Buy Ireland

We nailed the downwave in the Dow Jones via the YM contract. Continuing to hold short at this time. I see substantial opportunity right now in the Irish banks--primarily in the two most beaten down, IRE and IAB. The following is a brief piece I did for another site, enjoy!

"I'll rather be screwed by the IMF" reads a line of Irish produced protest undergarments. The Irish people are angry at the condition of their government and economy. Long a land of political turmoil, the banking and credit crisis has turned the common bickering into utter chaos and fear. The European Union EU has stepped into the fray pressuring the struggling country to immediately approve an austerity budget in order to trigger an EU/IMF rescue package. Prime Minister, Brian Cowen, is fighting to allow the new budget become law on December, 7th. However, the drastic wage and other cuts demanded have infuriated the opposition who are demanding he step down. The next several weeks are going to be touch and go as the situation moves beyond the boiling point and something snaps.

There is substantial positive potential for investors in the Irish chaos. Wise investors/traders understand that the maximum profits are earned from investing into the seemingly worst of times. It is my belief that this may be one of those times for the Irish banks.

Central bank governor, Patrick Honahan, told Reuters, The banks are for sale as far as I am concerned, I've been an advocate for a number of years for small countries to have foreign owners for their banks." Wow! Combine this statement with the massive drop of the ADR's The Bank of Ireland (NYSE:IRE) and Allied Irish Bank (NYSE: AIB) and the edge is definitely on the long side with both these stocks. There may be some additional pain to come in the near term, but my bet is both these banks will be trading higher within the next year. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all if these two stocks tripled in value in the next 12 months. Good luck!

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